Faults' hot streaks and slumps could change earthquake hazard assessments

For more than a century, a guiding principle in seismology has been that earthquakes recur at semi-regular intervals according to a 'seismic cycle.' In this model, strain that gradually accumulates along a locked fault is completely released in a large earthquake. Recently, however, seismologists have realized that earthquakes often occur in clusters separated by gaps, and one research group now argues that the probability of a tremor's recurrence depends upon whether a cluster is ongoing -- or over.

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